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October 21, 2008

Digimarc (NASDAQ: DMRC -$9.80)

Filed under: From the co-founders — Tags: , , , — Jane Scottsdale @ 6:59 am

 

How would you like to own one of the most valuable patent portfolios in the world and a profitable intellectual licensing business for an enterprise value of little more than cash and one times sales? Digimarc is a spin-off from an acquisition and has $43 million in cash and no debt and a patent portfolio the Wall Street Journal and the Patent Scoreboard ranks as one of the strongest patent portfolios in the information technology sector in the world.

 

The buyout and spin-off

 

Before the spin-off, Digimarc operated two businesses: secure identification solutions and digital watermarking. L-1 Identity Solutions, Inc. (NYSE: ID) acquired the secure ID business for $12.25 cash per share or $310 million while the digital watermarking business was spun-off into a separate business. Shareholders in the spin-off received one share for every 3.5 shares they held of the old business.

 

What the new Digimarc is made of

 

The watermarking spin-off kept the same name, Digimarc, and now trades on NASDAQ under the ticker DMRC. The spin-off kept all of the intellectual property relating to the watermarking business, about $43 million in cash or $5.79 per share on a fully diluted basis, and a $60 million backlog. The management team and Board will remain the same. This is the exact same team that just sold out for a big profit. Revenues for fiscal 2008 are expected to be around $19 million with profitability expected in the first full year of operations as a separate entity, and this is up from $13 million in fiscal 2007.

 

Revenues are split in half between licensing fees and service revenue. Revenues from licensing produce 98% gross margins and revenues from services produce 47% gross margins. The net result is a company with a 72% gross margin.

 

Digimarc holds 360 US patents and currently has 500 pending patent applications in digital watermarking and related technologies.

 

What is digital watermarking?

 

There are literally billions of digitally watermarked objects in circulation around the world.

Digital (meaning made by a computer) watermarks are embedded in various types of media to provide security, tracking, and authenticity.

 

Pull out a $20 bill from your wallet. There are watermarks near the border of the portraits on the face of the bill. If you hold the bill up to light, a visible watermark in the form of a portrait is shown. These watermarks serve to protect the currency from being counterfeited. Digimarc has several central banks that are customers.

 

Digital watermarks can be placed on tangible and intangible media, including music, television, film, photographic images, documents (especially financial documents—like currency and checks), advertisements, identification cards, and Internet broadcasts. The identifying content on the watermark is determined by the customer’s needs and can be unlocked by authorized users with digital watermark readers.

 

For an example of intangible media that has been digitally watermarking think of David Letterman’s “Stupid Pet Tricks”. During the television airing, let’s say one million people watch. Then let’s say someone puts the footage up on YouTube where eventually three million people watch it. Because the footage has been watermarked, CBS can now track when, and where the footage is being viewed and by who (in addition to the original broadcast). CBS can now block the person from putting the footage up on YouTube, or they can place advertisements in the video stream to generate more revenues for CBS.

 

In the future, it will be ideal to place advertisements for dog food, cat litter, and pet insurance in the YouTube video. Without watermarking, CBS would misjudge their audience for “Stupid Pet Tricks” by three million. Not to mention, CBS would lose the potential to generate extra revenues from advertisements on YouTube.

 

Furthermore, there are two categories of digital watermarks: invisible and visible. Invisible digital watermarks do not degrade the quality of the media and cannot be seen or heard by humans, like the watermark on “Stupid Pet Tricks”. Visible watermarks perform the same functions as invisible watermarks, but they are visible like the watermarks on the $20 bill. Additionally, digital watermarks can be robust or fragile. Robust watermarks cannot be altered by any means (pure or not pure in nature) like copying, stretching, recording, editing, compression and decompression, encryption, decryption, broadcast and conversion (digital to analog and back). On the other hand, fragile watermarks are made to distort easily. This is especially useful in preventing counterfeiting of currency, other financial documents, and identification cards.

 

A study by MultiMedia Intelligence places the market for digital watermarking at “$131 million in 2007 to $171 million this year and $588 million in 2012”. Currently Digimarc owns 10% of the market. There is no reason to think believe that Digimarc won’t be able to at least maintain its market share if not grow it.

 

Patent Scoreboard

 

The Patent Board publishes the Patent Scoreboard in the Wall Street Journal. The Patent Board is an independent research firm that ranks a company’s patent strength based on the number of patents granted, science strength, innovation cycle time, industry impact, technology strength, and research intensity.

 

Digimarc consistently ranks in the Top 50 of IT industry patent portfolios. Digimarc ranked 21st on March 18, 2008 ahead of Google, McAfee, Western Digital, Siemens

ADS, NEC, Dell, Eastman Kodak, Apple, Seagate Technology, Network Appliance, Accenture, TDK ADS, Konica Minolta Holdings, and others.

 

Digimarc ranked 29th on July 15, 2008 ahead of NEC, Yahoo, Google, Western Digital, Eastman Kodak, Siemens ADS, and others.

 

The Patent Board keeps track of how many times a company’s patents block another company’s patents and how many times a patent is cited in another patent’s application. And it is for this reason that Digimarc ranks so highly.

 

Licensees

 

Digimarc’s patent licensees are quite a formidable list. Licensees include Nielsen, Central Banks, Adobe, AquaMobile, Signum, MarkAny, MSI, Philips, Verance, Cinea (a Dolby Company), Thomson, Veil, Verimatrix, and GCS Research.

 

Valuation and comps

 

 

Digimarc

Qualcomm

DivX

Dolby

Price

9.80

40.29

5.86

32.05

Cash/Share

5.79

1.80

0.87

3.25

Price-Cash

4.01

38.49

4.99

28.80

S/O: diluted

7,428,571

1,654,000,000

32,907,000

113,696,000

M Cap

72,800,000

66,639,660,000

192,835,020

3,643,956,800

Cash

43,000,000

2,970,000,000

28,785,000

369,907,000

Debt

-

2,771,000,000

20,860,000

241,431,000

Preferred

 

 

 

 

Shares

-

-

-

-

EV

29,800,000

66,440,660,000

184,910,020

3,515,480,800

Assumed

 

 

 

 

Growth

25%

25%

10%

25%

Sales 08

19,000,000

10,114,000,000

85,280,000

610,000,000

EV/Sales 08

1.57

6.57

2.17

5.76

Sales 09

23,750,000

12,642,500,000

93,808,000

762,500,000

EV/Sales 09

1.25

5.26

1.97

4.61

Net Income 08

NA

3,031,000,000

9,900,000

190,000,000

EPS 08

NA

1.83

0.30

1.67

P/E 08

NA

21.99

19.48

19.18

P/E 08 -Cash

NA

21.01

16.57

17.23

Net Income 09

3,000,000

3,788,750,000

10,890,000

237,500,000

EPS 09

0.40

2.29

0.33

2.09

P/E 09

24.5

17.59

17.71

15.34

P/E 09 -cash

10.0

16.80

15.06

13.79

 

Digimarc has no debt and $43 million in cash as cited above. They have 7.4 million shares outstanding, meaning that at current quotational value, the stock trades at an enterprise value of $26 million outside of cash for a profitable company with one of the world’s most valuable patent portfolios around.

Digimarc compares very favorably to other intellectual property licensing companies. On average intellectual property companies trade at 4 times revenue and over 15 times earnings, even in this terrible market. Digimarc by comparison trades for 1.25 times sales and 10 times my estimate for next year.

 

Financial Assumptions

 

According to management, fiscal 08 revenues will increase to $19 million from $13 million in fiscal 07. I assume that revenue will grow a very conservative 25% in fiscal 2009, which based upon market research, past performance and its backlog should be pretty easy to attain.

 

The pro-forma financials on the Form 10 state Digimarc’s net income for the first half of 08 to be $1.588 million. I decided to assume that Digimarc earns no income in the second half due to one-time items resulting from the spin-off (consulting fees, costs from downsizing, attorney fees etc.). I assume that with the additional revenue and lack of one­time expenses that the company earns $3 million in fiscal 2009. At current prices, Digimarc is trading at 10 times my estimate for fiscal 2009 earnings.

 

Summary

 

With almost $6 a share in cash, an intellectual patent portfolio treasure chest, a growing profitable licensing business in a fast growing and important field, Digimarc is well positioned even in this terrible economy. When the market recovers and stabilizes, this is the type of company that will do well, a growth company with excess cash with exciting technologies. Get it while it’s still a value stock.

October 14, 2008

Value Investing Congress: Small Cap Diamonds in a Rough Market

Aaron Edelheit of Sabre Value Management presents “Small Cap Diamonds in a Rough Market.” Sabre is generating 19% annualized returns.

How has the small cap value sector outperform so long? Edelheit argues this is because there are periods of illiquidity and volatility. Edelheit focuses on insider buying, spin-offs and restructuring.

Photochannel (PNWIF) is now at $2 or 7 times earnings. They managing front and back end of photo sites. Clients include Costco, CVS, Tesco and Wal-Mart Canada. It is an excellent recurring revenue model. Revenue is suppose to grow 100%. They are creating a wide economic moat with high switching costs. It took Costco 9 months to move their photos. By storing so many images online it will cost a lot to move to another system.

Why not just have retail customers upload it from their computer? It is just a matter of education. As customers upload online, Photochannel grows.

People keep printing photos even in a recession. New customers of Costco, Sam’s Club and Kodak China. Digital prints are up 27%. Print orders online grew 64% online. Home printing is declining, lost 12% of its market share. Home printing is expensive.

There is optionality value of the potential Kodak China and Kodak India income, 25000 kiosks.

They will receive 5% of everything that goes through the kiosks. Each kiosk does $3 a day at 25,000 locations with no expenses to Photochannel.

Why so cheap? Not covered by sell side analysts, small cap Canadian index down over 44% YTD. A few funds have been forced to sell. Its at the lowest price in two years while it added customers and now making money. The company is growing revenues at 80% selling at 7 times earnings is unheard of.

Hemisphere GPS (Toronto: HEM)

Precision agriculture including GPS guidance and auto-steering becomes best proctices on the farm. Payback can be 6 months or less thanks to soaring input costs.

Sold their first product to China yesterday. They grew revenues by 59% in Q2 and should grow revenue 50% plus in 2008. They are raising prices and the grain bull market typically last 10-14 year and we are in year 2.

Why is it cheap? A rival company won business to Agco but HEM still with them as a customer. Rivals product doesn’t work yet.

Only 9 times this years earnings. Insiders are buying shares. They have called for a 5% buyback. There is IP value here that there are only 4-5 companies with the technology. New markets include autonomous mining vehicles. The mining companies don’t have this technology.

Limoneira (LMNR)

Producer of avocados that owns 7,000 acres of prime California real estate. They just got 500 acres to get entitled for residential development. The weather is amazing at this location.

The also own a rectangle of land in Ventura that overlooks the Pacific ocean. It is only one of 2 project to be built in Ventura in the next 10 years.

They also own water rights going back to 1893. They have 5 million acre feet in Santa Paula Basin and another 10 million un-adjudicated in Fillmore Basin. They also own their own mutual water company shares worth $100 million. They also have their own pipeline conduit to Ventura that waters avocado trees that could be used to sell water to Ventura and Oxand

Digimarc (DMRC/D)

It has strong patent portfolio according to WSJ Patent Scoreboard, 21st strongest. The company is not trading yet since it is a spinoff. They do digital watermarking. They are used on picture, audio, and data files.

They have $13 million of revenue in 2007 and expected to grow to $20 million in 2008. 77% gross margins and profitable. Can be used to scan YouTube video for watermarks and even to help monetize that content when it is identified.

How does the 21st strongest patent portfolio in information technology in the world equal a $50 million EV?

Edelheit closed the presentation with a call for participants to be a mentor. I can’t argue with his value claim with that.

A question noted that it is important to look at how many years the patents have left in the Digimarc portfolio of patents.

George
www.fatpitchfinancials.com

October 8, 2008

New York Value Investing Congress 2008 Day 2: Part II

Leon Cooperman, Omega Advisors

Cooperman his presentation with a somewhat optimistic (or “realistic” as he called it”) view of the current state of the markets. Cooperman believes that the bulk of the damage has already been done to the markets, and was hopeful for several reasons:

  • Evidence that housing is finally bottoming
  • Residential investment is at recession lows
  • Housing affordability is improving
  • Equity valuations are reasonable, if not better
  • Price to replacement cost book values are at below average
  • ROE for S&P 500 is near historically high levels
  • More companies (13% of S&P 500) are yielding more than 10 year Treasury—most in 15 years
  • Yield curve is positively sloped
  • Corporate America is in good shape from a balance sheet perspective- Debt to capital near 30 year lows
  • Liquidity is high (although there is fear to use it)
  • Inflation expectations are receding.

Cooperman likes Atlas America (ATLS), which owns three other publicly traded MLP’s (Atlas Energy Resources (ATN), Atlas Pipeline (APL), and Atlas Holdings (AHD). Currently trading at $23, Cooperman believes the entire package could be worth $30-$77.

Aaron Edelheit- Sable Value Management

Edelheit presented at the Value Investing Congress West last May, and his deep passion and conviction for value investing was equally apparent in New York. Edelheit pointed out the outstanding returns from the small cap value area of the market since 1970 (16.2%), but noted the disinterest here from many investors. He cited the following reasons for this situation:

  • Small Cap Value can be very boring to investors
  • There may be long periods with no news
  • Illiquidity associated with SCV companies scares investors
  • Too much volatility
  • Little or no analyst coverage

One of Edelheit’s favorite ideas is Photo Channel Networks (PNWIF), which provides online digital photography solutions for retailers.

  • At $1.50 per share, trades at 9 times eps (7 times 2009)
  • Rapidly growing, revenue up 250% last quarter
  • New customers Sam’s club, Costco, Kodak China
  • Digital printing business growing rapidly (64% last year)
  • No analyst coverage

Jonathan Heller, CFA

Disclaimer: I have no positions in any of the companies mentioned

May 8, 2008

Value Investing Congress West 2008: Day 2 (I)

Filed under: From the co-founders — Tags: , , , , , , , , — Jane Scottsdale @ 11:08 am

The Mortgage Crisis
Whitney Tilson and Glenn Tongue of T2 Partners kicked off day 2 with a sobering look at the mortgage crisis. For his part, Tilson believes that we have not yet seen the worst. His extremely detailed presentation (“The Latest on the Mortgage Crisis and Implications for Certain Financial Stocks”) paints a very bleak picture, suggesting that all things housing and mortgage related will get much worse before improving. Tongue and Tilson put their money where their mouth is with short positions in monoline insurers AMBAC and MBIA, Washington Mutual, and a long position in Fairfax Holdings (which has gained and may gain further in the mortgage crisis due to its credit default swap holdings).

Glenn Tongue gave an excellent overview on Berkshire Hathaway, making the bullish case based on:
• Over –capitalization
• In a great position to take advantage of opportunities this market presents
• Remains the premier capital allocator
Tongue Valued Berkshire on:
• Investments/share ($90,342)
• Plus PV of future pre-tax eps (excluding investments)
• Intrinsic Value of $156,000- $159,000, a 20% premium to current price
We can only hope that Whitney and Glenn are wrong on the depth of the mortgage crisis (wishful thinking) and right on Berkshire’s valuation.

Aaron Edelheit
- Sabre Value Management
One of the very pleasant surprises this year was newcomer Aaron Edelheit, whose passion for value investing was very apparent in his presentation. Edelheit pointed out the outstanding returns from the small cap value area of the market since 1970 (16.2% annualized), but noted the disinterest here from many investors. He cited the following reasons for this situation:
• Small Cap Value can be very boring to investors
• There may be long periods with no news
• Illiquidity associated with SCV companies scares investors
• Too much volatility
• Little or no analyst coverage
One of Edelheit’s favorite ideas is Hemisphere GPS (HEM CN), formerly CSI Wireless. This misunderstood company is his largest holding.
• Hemisphere operates in the agricultural GPS arena, offering “auto steering” technology to farmers, which allows for more efficient use of tractors and thus their acreage, seed and fertilizer
• Pricing of HEM’s products are very favorable
• He forecasts rapid sales and earnings growth on the horizon

Jonathan M. Heller, CFA
*Author does not own any securities mentioned

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